In this post i-Transport LLP considers the possible ramifications of the current Covid-19 pandemic on changing attitudes to work practices and travel more generally and assesses the resultant opportunities for developments.
We are already experiencing behavioural changes relating to how we work, shop and travel as a consequence of the current social-distancing policies. Whilst those policies will evolve over time we will not return to what we considered ‘normal’ quickly.
Changing attitudes will reduce overall travel demands and spread them across the day, reducing network demands in the traditional peak periods. Based on analyses of past economic downturn events, we anticipate that peak period traffic levels will remain below pre-pandemic levels over the medium term and that Government will need to revise its forecasts of future traffic growth downwards.
Evidence is already beginning to emerge of the likely ramifications of the pandemic:
Whilst the precise impacts of the pandemic are unknown, we expect significant reductions in rush hour traffic (more correctly know as the "peak period") during 2020/21 and a continued decline in peak period travel over the next 2-5 years in response to the associated economic impacts. It could take 7 to 10 years for traffic to return to 2019 levels.
Such effects would be consistent with previous economic downturns. For example, after the 2007 recession traffic growth was negative for around 3 to 4 years, with a return to pre-recession levels taking until 2015 - despite population growth of more than 6% in the same period. The effects of the current pandemic could be more pronounced and longer lasting.
Department for Transport traffic forecasts - which have historically over-estimated traffic growth - will need to be revised downwards in response to the current crisis and the anticipated longer-term changes to the way we work, commute, shop and take leisure.
Analysis of recent planning appeal decisions indicates that issues of accessibility by non-car modes and the promotion of active travel have been increasingly important to development schemes across the country in the past 12 months. This will only be of greater importance in future given the pandemic induced changes.
Development proposals should be re-framed to capitalise on these effects by moving to a ‘vision and validate model’ and away from the ‘predict and provide’ of the past. Fundamentally that means we need to develop a vision for the places we want to live and work in. Greater emphasis will also need to be placed on demonstrating how developments meet the Government’s desire to promote health, well-being and sustainable growth.
Developers can do so by building on the groundswell of support for active travel and by accounting for changed travel patterns when planning their schemes. The recent rapid introduction of temporary walking and cycling infrastructure shows what can be achieved. Proposals to facilitate effective homeworking should be central to housing schemes, as should coherent schemes for the continuing transition of the vehicle fleet to Ultra Low Emission Vehicles.
Public transport can be expected to be used less in the short term and developments will need to properly plan for its use in future. Innovative and bespoke alternatives to public transport for employment sites, such as corporate or demand responsive vehicles should also be assessed.
We see windows of opportunity for the development sector emerging over the coming months. Increased network capacity resulting from falling peak period demands may permit sites to be reassessed in terms of how much development can come forward and/or the financial contributions necessary to make development acceptable in planning terms could shift in line with changing travel patterns.
The pandemic has forced these changes upon us, now we need to re-focus them to achieve the positive outcome we’re all hoping for.
Vanessa Eggleston is a Partner at i-Transport LLP, a specialist transport planning consultancy with offices nationwide.
Perceptions about the level of traffic that will be generated are one of the main reasons that local residents object to development proposals. That makes it crucial to the success of any planning application that the highways impacts are carefully considered. As part of our land promotion service, The Strategic Land Group has considerable experience in dealing with these issues - and all at our cost and risk.
If you know of a site that might be suitable for development, get in touch today for a free, no obligation consultation.
